The following is a post from Jim Dunn, who's getting rejected by Blogger this evening:
I’m a former resident of New Orleans, and it’s not an exaggeration to say that I was miserable the entire year I lived there. NOLA is the epitome of the city that’s a great place to visit, but not to put down roots. So it’s not on my list of favorite places. But I am seriously worried about Hurricane Katrina smacking the city.
The city that sits in a big bowl surrounded by levees (although the CNN report below refers to them as “levys”) can be laid pretty low by a big rainstorm. Flooding is a very common occurrence from showers that would cause slight problems in most areas. Since it does sit in a bowl, all the water has to be pumped out by massive pumping stations before everything gets back to normal.
But that’s from a rainstorm. A direct hit from a hurricane is as different from a rainstorm as NO is from Salt Lake City. And there’s a possibility that exact thing could happen. Here’s a little of what
CNN.com has to say about that. Louisiana Gov. Kathleen Blanco said that President Bush had called and urged the state to order the evacuation.
About 485,000 people live in the city, and many began evacuating before sunrise.
Blanco said that westbound traffic was heavy and that the state police was urging people to travel to the north or east.
Shelters have been set up at 10 sites, including the Superdome, for people who cannot leave the city for medical or other reasons, but Nagin said they should be used only as a "last resort." (
See video from New Orleans, where not all are ready to leave)
He said people who must stay in the shelter should bring enough food, water and supplies to last several days.
The National Hurricane Center in Miami said low-lying areas along the Gulf Coast could expect storm surges of up to 25 feet as the Category 5 storm makes landfall early Monday.
Officials fear New Orleans is vulnerable because it sits an average of 6 feet below sea level. (Watch video of how New Orleans reacted to warning)
(Sorry, Jim, but I can't find this link. -- Mike)Nagin said the storm surge would likely topple the levy [sic] system that protects the city.
"It has the potential for a large loss of life," said Max Mayfield, director of the NHC.
Here’s more from Breitbart.com, courtesy of Drudge.
The hurricane's landfall could still come in Mississippi and affect Alabama and Florida, but it looked likely to come ashore Monday morning on the southeastern Louisiana coast, said Ed Rappaport, deputy director of the National Hurricane Center in Miami. That put New Orleans squarely in the crosshairs.
"If it came ashore with the intensity it has now and went to the New Orleans area, it would be the strongest we've had in recorded history there," Rappaport said in a telephone interview Sunday morning. "We're hoping of course there'll be a slight tapering off at least of the winds, but we can't plan on that. So whichever area gets hit, this is going to be a once in a lifetime event for them."
He said loss of life was "what inevitably occurs" with a storm this strong.
"We're in for some trouble here no matter what," he said.
Here's where
it starts getting really scary. On a recent evening, a scientist pulls up in the French Quarter. Joe Suhayda takes a plastic rod out of his trunk and he proceeds to show us what could happen the next time a hurricane hits New Orleans.
"OK, this is tool that I have a range rod," explains Suyhayda. "It will show us how high the water would be if we were hit with a Category Five Hurricane."
Which would mean what?
"Twenty feet of water above where we are standing now," says Suyhayda.
Twenty?
A Category Five Hurricane is the most powerful storm on a scientific scale. Suhayda plants the rod on the sidewalk next to a 200-year-old building that's all wrought iron balconies and faded brick and wooden shutters. Every click marks another foot that the flood would rise up this building.
I can't believe you're still going.
"Yeah, still going," says Suyhayda.
Until a couple months ago, Suhayda ran a prominent research center at Louisiana State University. They've developed the most detailed computer models that anybody's ever used to predict how hurricanes could affect this region. Studies suggest that there's roughly a one in six chance that a killer hurricane will strike New Orleans over the next 50 years.
Suhayda is still extending his stick as he describes what he is doing, "It's well above the second floor, just about to the rooftop."
It's hard to comprehend.
"Yes," agrees Suyahada, "it is really, to think that that much water would occur in this city during a catastrophic storm."
Do you expect this kind of hurricane—this kind of flooding—will hit New Orleans in our lifetime?
"Well I would say the probability is yes," says Suyahada. "In terms of past experience, we've had three storms that were near misses—that could have done at least something close to this."
Basically, the part of New Orleans that most Americans—most people around the world—think is New Orleans, would disappear.
The loss of life and livelihood of NO residents would of course be the greatest tragedy. But the effects of a direct hit would reach far beyond Louisiana. NO lies in the heart of America’s oil refining and importing industriae. Here’s a view of
the economic impact a direct impact on those facilities would have. The equipment located in the storm's likely path includes the bulk of the nation's oil and gas production platforms, thousands of miles of pipelines and -- perhaps most importantly for national gasoline prices -- much of the country's refinery capacity. In addition, the south Louisiana coastline serves as the entry point for around a third of the nation's imported oil.
Last year's Hurricane Ivan, which came ashore along the Alabama-Florida line moving through an area mostly devoid of rigs, caused widespread destruction both above and below water in the fields off Alabama and eastern Louisiana. Floating rigs were found drifting hundreds of miles from the wells they had been plumbing, while some rigs with legs fixed to the bottom toppled into the sea. Hundreds of millions of dollars worth of pipelines were tangled and torn to pieces by sea currents and massive underwater mudslides.
The full extent of the damage wasn't known for days and the Gulf lost nearly 30 percent of production capacity for well over a month, which drove prices for oil up $12 a barrel within a few weeks. Prices for both oil and natural gas surged upward and stayed high for months.
Major threatBut that storm was just a baby tap on the Gulf's infrastructure compared with the blow some in the oil industry are predicting from Katrina.
Like I said, I’m seriously concerned about this hurricane.
Of course, some people root for them. Note that the esteemed Mr. Wolcott has added this ALL-CAP REJOINDER:
(THIS HAS PROVEN TO BE MY MOST POPULAR POST AMONG RIGHTWING BLOGGERS. I HAVE COME TO CONSIDER IT MY GIFT TO THEM--OR YOU, IF YOU HAPPEN TO BE ONE OF 'THEM.' WHENEVER A NEW STORM BREWS, I FEEL CONFIDENT YOU WILL RETURN HERE TO QUOTE IT YET AGAIN.
AND FOR THOSE OF YOU DISCOVERING IT FOR THE FIRST TIME, HOLD ON TO YOUR PHONY INDIGNATION AND LET IT WARM YOU THROUGH THE DARK DAYS AHEAD.
KISSES AND TWINKLING THOUGHTS FROM ME,
JW)
Evidently, Mr. Wolcott believes being concerned about the lives of thousands, and quite possibly the quality of life of tens of millions, is “PHONY INDIGNATION.”
